In 2007, during the introduction of the G8 reform, I experienced firsthand in the German Ministry of Education in Hessen what it means to implement far-reaching political decisions. Reducing the duration of upper secondary education from nine to eight years was not just a reform – it was a test of the entire education system. At that time, I learned a crucial lesson: Major transformations don’t happen in stable, predictable environments – they emerge under pressure, with limited resources, and against resistance. This understanding shapes my work to this day.
By 2025, this pattern repeats itself – but with a new dimension. The coalition government under Scholz has crumbled under the pressure of multiple crises. At the same time, Trump took the White House again – with a mandate for protectionism and a geopolitical overhaul. Anyone still hoping for stability is making a fatal mistake. We are not experiencing an anomaly; we are in a new era of permanent volatility. Companies must radically adjust their strategy – or risk being left behind in this ongoing transformation.
Three Realities Decision-Makers Must Understand Now
1. The End of Predictability
Building consensus in fragmented political landscapes was never easy – and Germany is currently facing the culmination of this challenge:
- Traditional parties are losing their unifying power. The political architecture is permanently shifting, and stable majorities are almost impossible to predict.
- The rise of the German right-wing party AfD (Alternative for Germany) forces established parties into repositioning. They oscillate between distancing themselves and aligning.
- Polarization makes political decisions unpredictable. Even moderate reforms face fierce opposition.
At the same time, Trump’s second presidency is fundamentally reshaping global power dynamics:
- "America First" is once again driving economic policy. Trade agreements and international cooperation are under pressure.
- His administration increasingly leans toward economic isolationism. Expert analyses point to a period of intense protectionism.
- Multilateral institutions are under fire. International economic cooperation is increasingly destabilized.
Conclusion: Linear strategy planning belongs to the past. Companies must adopt scenario planning as a core part of their strategic direction to be prepared for political volatility.
2. The Convergence of Technology and Politics
Political influence is no longer limited to parties and governments – it’s increasingly in the hands of tech elites:
- Entrepreneurs like Elon Musk are becoming political players. His public support for right wing parties shows how technology and politics are increasingly merging.
- AI is changing political communication. Algorithmic decision-making systems shape discourse often unnoticed – influencing public opinion more than traditional media.
- Control over data and digital infrastructure is becoming a geopolitical power issue. Governments are vying for technological standards and platforms.
Conclusion: Companies must view "tech politics" as a strategic factor. I recommend integrating this analysis into key decision-making processes.
3. Political Volatility as the New Normal
The frequency and intensity of political upheaval is at an unprecedented level:
- German economic policy is constantly changing. Companies need to adapt more quickly to new frameworks.
- Climate policy is becoming a political battleground. Long-term transformation processes are repeatedly pressured by politics.
- European integration is faltering. Despite ample funding, many projects fail due to bureaucratic hurdles – a pattern repeated at the EU level.
- Global power struggles are shifting to the economic level. Investments and trade relations are increasingly weaponized geopolitically.
Conclusion: Companies do not only need to cope with volatility but leverage it as an opportunity. Building adaptive strategies will become a decisive competitive advantage.
Three Strategic Imperatives I Recommend
After a thorough analysis of political trends and their economic implications, I see three key areas for action:
1. Establish a Political Early Warning System
The sooner you recognize changes, the more room for maneuver you have. An effective early warning system should include:
- Connecting data analysis and expert knowledge – A combination of AI-driven monitoring and targeted political networks provides solid decision-making foundations.
- Mapping regulatory risks – Companies must systematically capture their dependencies on political developments.
- Dynamic stakeholder mapping – Influence structures are changing rapidly, so continuous tracking is crucial.
- Integrating political intelligence into decision-making processes – Geopolitical expertise should be deeply embedded in company leadership.
2. Cultivate Strategic Adaptability
Even the best transformation requires continuous adjustment. In a volatile environment:
- Modular and scenario-based planning – Rigid strategies no longer work. Companies need core strategies that can be flexibly expanded.
- Fast and agile decision-making processes – Complex coordination with many stakeholders takes time, but swift action is essential. Striking this balance becomes a strategic success factor.
- Diversification of supply chains and business models – Companies should intentionally build redundancies in critical areas to remain resilient.
- Regulatory intelligence as a core competence – A deep understanding of political processes is essential today to manage risks and seize opportunities.
3. Develop Resilient Leadership
Effective leadership in uncertain times requires specific skills:
- Strengthening ambiguity tolerance – Leaders must be able to handle contradictory scenarios and think in parallel without falling into simple either/or patterns.
- Identifying weak signals early – Early indicators of political and economic change are crucial to securing competitive advantages.
- Establishing agile resource allocation – Dynamic budgeting and flexible resource utilization enable quick adjustments to changing conditions.
- Embedding geopolitical competence in the leadership team – Political expertise must be an integral part of strategic decision-making processes.
A Conceptual Example from Practice
A mid-sized technology company with an international focus faces the challenge of positioning itself in an increasingly volatile political landscape. As a strategic advisor, I recommend the following steps:
- Vulnerability Analysis – Identifying geopolitical risks in the company’s main markets. Which political developments could impact supply chains, trade, or regulation?
- Political Intelligence System – Developing a tailored monitoring system for political dynamics in Germany, Europe, and other key markets.
- Adaptive Strategy Development – Creating modular strategy options for various scenarios, from regulatory tightening to new market opportunities driven by political change.
- Supply Chain Adjustment – Analyzing existing supply chains for geopolitical vulnerabilities and developing diversified alternative structures.
- Leadership Development – Implementing a program to strengthen geopolitical competence in the management team, enabling fast and informed decision-making.
The Result: A company that does not only cope with political volatility but actively uses it as a competitive advantage.
Political Volatility as a Strategic Competitive Advantage
The German election and Trump’s return are not isolated events but part of a deep geopolitical reordering. Companies that recognize political dynamics early and strategically leverage them will not only become more resilient – they will gain a decisive competitive advantage.
Those who act now will not only survive in this era of uncertainty – they will thrive. My approach to integrating political intelligence into decision-making processes provides a structured method to turn geopolitical turbulence into sustainable success.
One key insight from my experience in the German Ministry of Education and at the Mercator Foundation in a federal context remains highly relevant today: In complex systems, it is not those who hope for stability who win, but those who accept multidimensionality as a strategic opportunity.
The time to act is now.
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